Prediction markets on the US Cabinet

A list of the markets, to save you looking.

What does Polymarket predict for the US Cabinet? Markets may have shifted since these screenshots were taken?

Secretary of State:

Current it's close between Ric Grenell (44%) and Marco Rubio (40%).

polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-nominate-for-secretary-of-state?tid=1731042601715

Treasury Secretary:

On balance, it might be Scott Bessent (52%), though John Paulson (21%) has a good shot.

polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary?tid=1731044462553

Defense Secretary:

It maybe Mike Pompeo (44%) or plausibly Christopher Miller (22%) or Mike Walz (21%).

polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-nominate-for-treasury-secretary?tid=1731044462553

Attorney General:

It might be Mike Lee (40%), or plausibly John Ratcliffe (22%).

polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-nominate-for-attorney-general

Health and Human Services Secretary:

It might be RFK Jr. (32%) or plausibly Ben Carson (18%).

polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-nominate-for-hhs-secretary

Agriculture Secretary:

It might be Kip Tom (33%) or plausibly Sid Miller (20%)

polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-nominate-for-agriculture-secretary

Energy Secretary:

Polymarket suggests that more than likely it Doug Burgum (62%) though also maybe Dan Broulliette (28%).

polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-nominate-for-secretary-of-the-energy

You might wonder where Musk fits into all this.

@Kalshi has the biggest market here and gives says Musk might be nominated (29%). Notably, this hasn't gone up since Trump won. It ought to have doubled, so that's a bearish sign for his cabinet prospects.

kalshi.com/markets/cabinetmusk/elon-musk-nominated-to-the-cabinet

Note that Trump has chosen a Chief of Staff, Susie Wiles.

nytimes.com/2024/11/07/us/politics/susie-wiles-trump-white-house-chief-of-staff.html

That marks the end of the large markets. But for completeness, here are the other markets, often with a claimed volume of about $1000. I would trust these less.

Interior Secretary:

Katharine MacGregor (28%), Doug Burgum (29%), David Bernhardt (23%)

polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-nominate-for-interior-secretary

Commerce Secretary:

Bill Hagerty (44%), Linda McMahon (34%), Robert Lighthizer (26%)

polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-nominate-for-commerce-secretary

Labor Secretary:

Bryan Slater (50%), Patrick Pizzella (31%)

polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-nominate-for-labor-secretary

Housing and Urban Development Secretary:

Ben Carson (46%), Tim Scott (27%), Brian Montgomery (27%)

polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-nominate-for-hud-secretary

Transportation Secretary:

Sam Graves (65%), Garret Graves (29%)

polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-nominate-for-transportation-secretary

Secretary of Veterans Affairs:

Tulsi Gabbard (38%), Robert Wilkie (32%)

polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-nominate-for-secretary-of-veterans-affairs

Homeland Security Secretary:

Chad Wolf (41%), Thomas Homan (27%)

polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-nominate-for-homeland-security-secretary

Environmental Protection Agency Administrator:

Andrew Wheeler (61%), Mandy Gunasekara (17%)

polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-nominate-for-environmental-protection-agency-administrator