From my experience, there are trolls on Manifold, especially in the comment section. The anonymity comes at a price.
Metaculus's cooperation with organizations and their real money tournaments incentivize people to maintain credible accounts - while at the same time preventing gambling and problems with the law. I'd argue that Metaculus is the best prediction market online.
Who care how good Eliezer, Robin, or Zvi are at forecasting, when you can as well ask Manifold and Metaculus?
Many people care how good Eliezer, Robin and Zvi are at thinking, and to me forecasting seems a good proxy for that.
From my experience, there are trolls on Manifold, especially in the comment section. The anonymity comes at a price.
Metaculus's cooperation with organizations and their real money tournaments incentivize people to maintain credible accounts - while at the same time preventing gambling and problems with the law. I'd argue that Metaculus is the best prediction market online.
By "asking Manifold" I mean creating a question, not using the comment section. It will only cost you a little play money and some time.