A car journey with conservative evangelicals

Understanding British political-religious beliefs

I’m heading home from a family wedding this weekend. I had a plane ticket, but in the end, decided to travel back with two of my uncles and my cousin. Most of my dad’s family are evangelicals¹, my aunts and uncles are children of missionaries or missionaries themselves. And as a family we like to have debates.

The service was in a stunning church in St. Andrews

Here is a rough sketch of a discussion with my relatives. Though it could as well be one with a chunk² of my Christian friends. I’m gonna call them “conservative evangelicals”, i.e. an evangelical who takes the Bible literally³ and has a range of conservative social positions.

To help you track the flow of the discussion, I think there are 4 key arguments here:

• Britain⁴ is declining

• Britain, specifically, has turned away from (the Christian) God

• National success is linked to godliness

• Ultimate well being comes from a relationship with God

See if you can spot them in the discussion that follows.

A sketch of an discussion

Me: “Who would you vote for?”

Conservative evangelical: “Reform⁵, probably. Obviously not Labour and you can’t trust the Tories”

Me: “Yeah, fair enough. The Tories have made a mess, can’t take them seriously.”

Conservative evangelical: “It’s terrible. High taxation, high immigration, woke stuff. Not sure I’ll ever vote Tory again”.

Me: “So what do you want Reform to do?”

Conservative evangelical: “Get control of the borders, for a start. Stop this climate rubbish. We need a shakeup of government in general. It’s impossible to run a business here”

Me: “So like, build more housing? Get growth?”

Conservative evangelical: “Not sure I want more housing, too many people here as it is. We don’t have enough schools or enough hospitals. Nothing works”

Me: “Okay so we stop illegal immigration, we build more power stations. Would that work?”

Conservative evangelical: “Sure but it isn’t gonna fix the real problem - this country has turned away from God”

Note how we move⁶ from politics to theology.

Me: And that’s why things are bad?

Conservative evangelical: Yes, people are so anxious, broken families, trans stuff. It’s God’s judgement on us.

Me: Hmmm okay. And if people turned back to God, the country would be better off?

Conservative evangelical: Yes. People have become so individualistic. They don’t want to have kids, they have no pride in their nation. Multiculturalism means we can’t be proud to be British, but prison chaplains are scared of going to certain cells because muslims control the prisons⁷.

Me: So why don’t people turn to Christianity if it’s what would be better for them?

Conservative evangelical: Just because it’s better doesn’t mean it’s easy. Wouldn’t I prefer to sit on the sofa rather than go to work each day? People want sin. They want affairs and drugs. So the country is like this.

End.

Why do conservative evangelicals believe this?

So again, to me there are 4 main arguments here, which I will give evidence and counter evidence for, according to the conservative evangelical Chrisitian worldview. I will critique them at the end, but that isn’t really the point of this article. I’ve put the evidence someone might reference along with each claim.

1. Britain is declining

Evidence: Economic stagnation, rising rates of mental illness and anxiety, loss of national identity, weakening family structures, increasing LGBT+ behavior.

2. Britain has turned away from (the Christian) God.

Evidence: LGBT+ behaviours. Individualism. Decline of the family. Church breakdown. Rise of atheism.

3. National success is linked to godliness

Evidence: Success of protestant nations, wider historical references (Europe, British Empire) and theological ones (Biblical Israel suffers when it turns from God⁸).

4. Ultimate well being comes from a relationship with God

(e.g. that People have turned from God and will suffer eternal punishment. Jesus died to cover that cost and if people turn to him they will spend eternity in Heaven.)

Evidence: Individual testimony. The Bible. Weakness of other explanations. Gospel accounts.

Let’s take a breath

I think that it’s worth spending a moment here. We started talking about UK politics and quickly ended up thinking about personal salvation. What happened?

There is a thing that needs to be explained - why the UK is struggling.

Conservative evangelicals, with reference to broad theology and their own experiences have an answer to this question. Just as individuals are selfish and turn away from (the Christian) God, so can nations. And as individuals suffer, so will Nations.

This is a core part of the argument to them. This is the main bit to get. There are some people (.1-5% of the UK population) who actually believe this and it affects who they want to elect and how they want to live..

Listening here is hard

I think being open to what people actually believe is a bit scary. I have to remember their arguments and worse, they might somehow be right.

If I can dismiss conservative evangelicals as racist or homophobic⁹, I don’t have to learn their reasons and certainly I don’t have to engage with them.

Personally I would advise not worrying if conservative evangelicals are right and just learning the stories they tell themselves. It’s an interesting story!

A difficult part of this is that these people really are competent debaters on matters of faith. I would not recommend trying to out argue them on that topic. And so it feels risky to me to allow theological arguments to be admissible in political discussion. I am scared that I will lose.

I think this kind of fear-based argumentation has generally been unhelpful to me in the search for truth and understanding. I wouldn’t recommend it. These days I would recommend being in a relaxed space, with a notepad and an ability to stop the discussion, then actually trying to understand someone. I don’t need to fear finding out information because what is true is already so¹⁰.

But if you actually want to have the discussion, here are my thoughts.

Okay, what do I think

1. Britain is in decline

Fair enough. I could nitpick, but that Britain is stagnating seems true. Conservative evangelicals aren’t remotely strange in thinking that the country is in decline. And dire straits for the UK are visible in a lot of data. For instance, British GDP growth per person has nearly flatlined since 2005. The country does seem both worse to live in and generally more lacking in self-belief than the US (though again, note that the difference between decline and stagnation - I think they are too pessimistic).

Source: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gdp-per-capita-worldbank?tab=chart&country=~GBR

I think the castigation of gay¹¹ behaviour is circular¹², but people do seem more anxious, number of children is down, etc.

But slowing economic growth is real and bad. So yeah, fair point.

2. Britain has turned away from God.

This seems fair too. Britain is far less religious and now engages in more non-Christian behaviours according to conservative evangelicals (and most non-liberal Christians).

All the graphs look like this.

3. National success is linked to godliness

I doubt this is true, but mostly I doubt Christians have any kind of robust argument for it. Where is a big table of countries and godliness? Has someone done an economic study of how Christianity correlates with wealth¹³? Where does China fit into this picture¹⁴? Or recent US growth despite declining religiosity.

I generally see a correlation between the amount someone cares about an argument and the amount of evidence that they can produce for it. My sense is that whilst Christians tend to care deeply about the historicity of the gospels and know their stuff about it, they don’t really care about the sociology/economics of how godliness relates to wealth. I expect if I discuss this with someone there is gonna be some hand waving about Protestant wealth, but no numbers.

That said, there is evidence that religious beliefs are correlated with wellbeing. I don’t think that would fix Britain, but plausibly we’d be a bit happier.

So yeah, I don’t expect this to change anyone’s minds. I don’t think that conservative evangelicals think this because of some deep economic intuition. I think they think it because the Bible says it and it is clearly analogous to their personal experience. So onto the next point.

4. Ultimate well being comes from a relationship with God

We are now firmly into theological territory. This is the Gospel. That humanity sinned, God is perfect and can’t stand that and so He sent Jesus to die so that this situation could be resolved.

I don’t believe this - I am not a Christian. But it is worth noting how alive this is to them¹⁵.

Conservative evangelical Christians spend an unbelievable amount of time focused on God: Church services and small groups, teaching their kids, praying alone and with friends. When I was a Christian I prayed 10s of times a day, asking God for wisdom or to help the person I was talking to. If a zealous Christian of any stripe is comfortable around me they talk about God all the time.

And yet I don’t think it’s true. How can something be so alive and real to one person and so flawed and sour to another? To these Christians the narrative of God’s salvation is the best story there is. It ties together all other stories. It is behind practically every conversation.

Again, I think it’s worth dwelling on this point. Imagine there is a symphony you cannot hear and a city you cannot see. That the world is full of magic and that every surface is covered with angelic script crying out that one day this place will be restored. Of course that has implications for British politics!

But either one should be willing to listen to this story, or have the honesty to say “ahh that’s where we disagree, I’m not looking to have this discussion right now”

Synthesis

Here is an attempt at turning all this into a single chart

Things we agree on:

• Britain¹⁶ is declining,

• The British Government (somehow) stands in the way of growth

• Britain has become less religiously observant over time

• Crime is bad, and Britain would be better off if it were reduced

• More nuclear power stations would be good

Things we disagree on:

• Whether ultimate well being comes from a relationship with the Christian God

• Whether national success is linked to godliness

• Whether more church attendance (or some proxy of godliness) would help British prospects

• Whether more housebuilding would help British prospects

Is this a helpful way to lay it all out?

Conclusion

There isn’t a conclusion. This isn’t that kind of article. It’s an attempt to explain what some actual people think. If you are to take one thing from this it is that real people actually think British decline is linked to actual British people’s relationship with an all powerful deity. And this has all sorts of implications for how they live their lives, what policies they will support and who they will vote for.

Also, where possible, I recommend ditching a flight for a long car journey with your family.

Thanks to Josh Hart, Tim Coysh and James Bone for reading a draft.

1. Though not all of them of are conservative evangelicals.

2. I'd guess that 5 - 40% of my christian friends are this conservative. Most people do not know Christians like this (or don’t know them well enough to hear their actual views)

3. Though even conservative evangelicals would hold that some parts of the Bible are poetic or allegorical. But in terms of commands, they would attempt to apply more than other conservative Christians on issues of homosexuality, women, church discipline etc.

4. I am gonna use Britain more than UK because it feels more like what this group would say This isn't about Englishness. I don’t think an actual comment is being made about Northern Ireland

(For clarity, Northern Ireland is part of the UK but not Britain, but I don’t think people mean anything like that here, they are just using Britain because it’s a nicer word than the UK, which I agree with)

5. Reform is a hard right UK party, pushing for immigration restrictions, a return to British values etc. They are somewhat Trumpian in vibe and it’s not too surprising that Musk is suggesting funding them.

6. When discussing with people, I'd recommend noticing shifts like this. Sometimes I don't want a theological discussion and will get off the train here. Similarly true for discussing with socialists.

7. I do not seek to comment on the accuracy of this claim.

8. It's important to note that since conservative evangelicals trust that the Bible is true, the Old Testament is considered a top tier historical source

9. Okay but are they racist and homophobic?

Only in as much as your grandparents and a big chunk of the UK and Israel, more of Europe, nearly all of India, Russia, China, Ukraine, Brazil, Palestine is. Are these people racist and homophobic too?

UK progressives occupy strange positions, both historically and in comparison to the rest of the world. While I generally agree with progressives on how women/ LGBT+ people should be treated, these terms imply people are bad. But it feels unhelpful to label so many people as bad.

If UK progressives wish to disagree with me here, they might find the recent US elections instructive. Why did so many black and Mexican people vote for Trump? Why did so many women?

(Looking at the data, only 12% of LGBT+ people voted for Trump, though 27% did in 2020, which is.. confusing https://www.nbcnews.com/nbc-out/out-politics-and-policy/lgbt-voters-away-from-trump-2024-election-record-change-rcna178939)

10. “What is true is already so. Owning up to it doesn't make it worse. Not being open about it doesn't make it go away. And because it's true, it is what is there to be interacted with. Anything untrue isn't there to be lived. People can stand what is true, for they are already enduring it.”

—Eugene Gendlin, The Listening Manual (1978)

11. While I disagree with conservative evangelicals stance of trans issues, I understand why someone significantly changing their body may be seen as a sign of them being unwell. But men having sex with men, why is that my business?

12. ChatGPT o1 -Preview makes this case better than I can:

“The claim that rising homosexual behaviour signals societal decline, with increased religiosity as the remedy, is circular. Unlike measurable declines in living standards that can be addressed by faith's positive societal impacts, viewing homosexuality as a decline is based on biblical principles asserting their own solution—essentially, the Bible advocating for the Bible.”

Hopefully that helps. The Bible is on both sides of the equation. Bad argument.

13. Growth is correlated with number of people (currently) so there is a case to be made from data here. I have not seen Christians make this case carefully.

14. A friend noted that since Christianity is growing in China, maybe that's why the nation is blessed. But now the theory is more complicated. Why isn't Britain's Christian community (who are far less persecuted by the state) causing the UK to be blessed? Is it because they aren’t growing? Maybe British decline isn’t caused by national sin, but instead a lack of faithfulness in British Christians? Honestly, I imagine conservative evangelicals might go for this, but it’s still an argument that they don’t primarily make.

15. And to me, though that's much messier. Note that things can feel real but not true, and one can be in love while thinking the object of that love is toxic.

16. I would say the UK, but we've started by saying Britain so we'll finish